The blog of a North Country Swede!

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

They're joking, aren't they? 800 Billion?

Secretary Paulson announced yesterday — Tuesday, November 25 — a new plan to pump billions into the consumer credit and home mortgage markets. What he didn't announce was how the consumer and home owner would pay back the money he wanted them to borrow. This is the umpteenth iteration of the same-old, same-old ... or am I missing something?

First off, I keep reading that this credit bubble was in the neighborhood of $50 trillion ... and that we have now thrown around $8 trillion at it. Seems like we have a ways to go. And, just to be up front, I happen to believe the first step in getting there is an honest appraisal of these numbers ... and who is holding what ... or at least receipts for who is getting the money ... all the way down the chain ... or is it going to be like taking those pallets of Benjamins — 100 dollar bills USD, for the slower folks — into the Iraq desert and leaving 'em for the camels or whatever?

It's like the stories that these guys didn't allow for falling home values in their economic models ... before home values started to fall ... because — apparently — home values had never fallen before ... dah! what WERE they thinking?! Guess these New York bankers never heard of "redlining" ... maybe it was too Chicago or something. Chicago bankers had a business model based on failing neighborhoods where home values would deteriorate over time.

Real estate agents used the concepts surrounding redlining to invent their own model of profiting from churning property sales: blockbusting. This is where they would get whites fearful of the influx of blacks into their neighborhoods, to sell at a reduced price. The real estate agents would then resale at a greatly inflated price to the black families who otherwise could not buy a home.

But back to the $800 billion ... Paulson's kidding if he thinks this is going to turn things around. Let's see, we are at $8 trillion +/- and counting on the $50 trillion +/- bubble that is deflating ... we have another $42 trillion +/- to go.

Lots of luck, folks.

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